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Padma
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« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2011, 11:54:59 AM » |
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Tracking space debris and satellites and stuff is easy:
Tracking Station A says, "Yes, I see it right where it's supposed to be." Tracking Station B says, "Yes, I see it right where it's supposed to be." Tracking Station C says, "Yes, I see it right where it's supposed to be." etc.
Given that information, they can calculate where it should be on its next pass within range. As long as nothing changes, it's a breeze.
For the UARS, things were changing. As it descended, it dipped deeper and deeper into the atmosphere. As it did so, it slowed down. How much it slowed was unpredictable, in part because the atmosphere isn't a homogeneous substance. The more it slowed, the deeper it plowed. The atmosphere also caused it to skew out of its predicted line, and tumble, because it wasn't streamlined like a missile; it was blocky, with protuberances all over it which would catch even the infinitesimal "wind" its passage caused.
With the information they had, they were first able to narrow down the time frame that drag would finally pull it to its death to a few hours. Then they were able to say, "It'll probably happen during *this* orbit. Then:
Tracking Station A says, "Yes, I see it right where it's supposed to be." Tracking Station B says, "Wait! I don't see it!."
So they knew it went down between A and B. That's a pretty extensive stretch. At first they thought it went down as predicted in the North Pacific. After correlating various NON-tracking data (eyewitness reports, data from other systems that happened to be looking in the right place at the time, etc.) they concluded it came down a few seconds earlier in the South Pacific.
As for falling over an inhabited area, first, consider that the Earth is roughly three-quarters covered with water. As for the remaining quarter, there are huge swaths (desert, mountains, etc.) that are sparsely populated, at best. If I were a betting man, I would say that there is probably only a one-in-eight chance, at best, of debris actually landing in a "inhabited area".
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